Macro Black Box
The Macro Black Box
Our Proprietary Long Term Trend Signal
The Top 40
The Top 40 List - Who we Cover:
Dow Jones Industrials Index
Dow Jones Wilshire 5000
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQ 100
S&P 500
S&P MidCap 400
S&P SmallCap 600
AMEX Energy Sector Index
AMEX Financial Sector Index
Industrial Select Sector
DJ
S&P Retail Index
Dow Jones Transportation Average
Russell 2000
Russell 3000
International Country Index’s
Hong Kong Index – based on iShares
Japan Index – based on iShares
Agricultural Commodities
Corn – Futures Market
Soybeans – Futures Market
Wheat – Futures Market
Other Commodities - Oil
Light Sweet Crude Oil – Futures Market
AMEX Oil Index
Bank of
Metals
AMEX Gold Index
Gold/Silver Index
Currencies
Australian Dollar / Cash
Brazilian Real / Cash
British Pound / Cash
Canadian Dollar / Cash
Euro Currency / Cash
Japanese Yen / Cash
Mexican Peso / Cash
Us Dollar
Ideal Users of this Information:
Investors
Institutional Investors
Banks
Money Managers
Managers of Pension Plans
Individual who are seeking to manage their own Investments with a Macro, or Long-Term Horizon
Individuals who are seeking to Managing their own Pension Plans
Individuals who are seeking to participate in Macro Market Rallies while seeking to avoid Macro Market Sell- offs
Investors / Banks / Money Managers and Managers of Pension Plans who are seeking the input of an independent third party
The Time Frames implied with our Macro Black Box:
It is important to understand that each Index, Commodity, or Currency will have a separate and different time frame by which a significant change, a Macro Trend takes place. The time horizon therefore for each Macro Trend will need to be looked at separately. The Macro Trend for each Index, Commodity, or Currency will be self evident, as an observation of the charts will themselves guide the user with what to reasonably expect going forward.
Some observable Macro-Tends may last up to six months. Some observable Macro-Trends may last a year, and some may last for more than fourteen years as found in the run up in the major indexes like that of the Dow or S&P 500 prior to 2000.
The Qualities of the Signal: Our Macro Proprietary Signal
The Signal identifies the beginning of a New Macro Trend, Up or Down.
The Signal picks up on the early movement of “Smart Money”.
The Signal does not use the Elliott Wave Principle.
The Signal does not use Fibonacci Rations.
The Signal does not use Trend Lines.
The Signal does not use News.
The Signal is objective, it is evident, and it is clear to the user.
The Signal will never identify the very top of a Macro Trend.
The Signal will never identify the very bottom of a Macro Trend.
The Signal comes after the very top or bottom of a Macro Trend is already in.
We do not provide you with the Proprietary Signal itself.
We only provide you with the Results of the Signal so that you can take the appropriate action.
The Benefits it offers:
First and foremost it offers the user the ability to Preserve and Protect Capital.
It seeks to take advantage of the Macro-Trends that take place in the Markets.
It allows the user to take action when the First Signal (Stage 1) takes place. This is very important because the First Signal puts the user of the information in the best place to either participate in the Macro-Trend when the final “Confirmation” is in, or if the Signal is to abort and reposition the user of the information will generally be able to get back in at an equal or better place than where the call was made at Stage 1.
It allows the user to avoid very difficult periods of time in the markets. Periods of time where the markets are at the very least very uncertain and capital is at risk.
When “Confirmation”, (Stage 3) is later made it has been found there have been no “False Positives” in any market and at any time, we refer to this as a “Completed Signal” or Stage 3.
This signal needs to be respected, it is very easy to implement, it is powerful and most importantly it works.
How it works: The Process
There are only two basic scenarios to focus upon and to anticipate or work through:
Scenario #1
In Stage 1 action should be taken. At Stage 1 a direction will be given to Buy or Sell the Market. The date and price of the market will be posted at the time Stage 1 is announced.
Next, you will be in a holding or waiting pattern:
In this holding or waiting pattern you will be waiting for both Stage 2 and Stage 3 to confirm the change in trend.
Finally, once Stage 3 is in, the “Final Confirmation Stage”:
You will simply remain with the action that was taken in Stage 1 until a New Macro-Signal is called which would be going in the opposite direction of the current Macro-Trend underway.
Scenario #2
First, Stage 1 will Signal:
In Stage 1 action should be taken. At Stage 1 a direction will be given to Buy or Sell the Market. The date and price of the market will be posted at the time Stage 1 is announced.
Next, you will be in a holding or waiting pattern:
In this holding or waiting pattern you will be waiting for both Stage 2 and Stage 3 to confirm the change in trend.
At times, you will be instructed to “Abort and Re-Position” yourself in the direction of the original trend you were previously in before Stage 1 was called. It may be prior to Stage 2 signaling or soon there after, but generally the case will be that when you are instructed to “Abort and Re-Position” you will often be able to get back in at an equal or better price than from where you made your choice in Stage 1. We can make no guarantee that this will be the case, but as you observe the calls over time you will find this to be the general pattern.
Warning: If you are not going to take action when Stage 1 signals and you are going to wait for Stage 2 or Stage 3 to signal a change in the trend then you will find yourself making a choice that is very deep into the New Macro-Trend and your results will suffer accordingly.
Big Ideas to Keep In Mind:
Over time markets move sideways and channel, hitting new highs here and there.
The buy and hold forever thinking does not fit realistically within our observation of markets over time.
After and upon an extended Macro-Trend selling off, when uncertainty is very high, this signal will be the very help needed in order to move funds back into the market so as to not miss out on the next big trend that is moving upward. The charts speak for themselves in this area. For example, most indexes signaled a buy signal around May-June of 2003, a time of great un-certainty. Was there another leg down, or can we move funds back in? This signal would have provided users with the right choice.
You will observe as you examine the charts that the more gradual the incline in a particular market the better the results will be in that the Proprietary Signal is better able to pick up on a significant change in trend early on. On the other hand markets that tend to spike in their price movement over short periods of time will still signal as well but the results will suffer.
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